Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European leaders and citizens rallied en-masse to pledge support for Ukraine’s Government and people. Yet, history has taught us to be wary of ‘conflict fatigue’ – a phenomenon whereby support for war (and for countries at war) reduces over time, particularly when a quick resolution appears unlikely.

As the conflict in Ukraine continues without any signs of a settlement or victor, and a cost-of-living crisis looms over many European countries, the threat of Ukraine-related conflict fatigue grows. This threat is further stoked by Kremlin-backed disinformation, which attempts to link western support for Ukraine with the cost-of-living crisis, along with anti-refugee rhetoric.

If Ukraine-related conflict fatigue rises, and disinformation narratives go unchallenged, public opinion could shift away from supporting Ukraine. This would make it more difficult for European governments to continue to offer current levels of support to Ukraine’s defence of Western values and democracy.